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BACK TO : PROPAGANDA AND THE GWOT Year 3 - 2004 (mainly Iraq)
Iraqis' Hearts and Minds by Erich Marquardt 
Iraqis' Hearts and Minds By Erich Marquardt Political Analyst - USA Islam Online, 28/01/2004 As Washington struggles to contain the rising insurgency in Iraq, it risks ignoring the lesson that should have been learned from the Vietnam War: to lose the population is to lose the war. According to subsequent polls coming out of Iraq, the United States has failed to win the support of the Iraqi people, a disastrous state of affairs if Washington hopes to isolate the insurgency. In September, the Gallup Organization polled Baghdad residents to examine their views on the US-led occupation. While 62 percent of respondents thought that the removal of Saddam Hussein from power was worth the hardships suffered from the March invasion, 30 percent answered to the contrary. More ominously, only 6 percent of respondents believed Baghdad to be a safer place since the fall of Saddam. The fact that 94 percent of Baghdad residents believe Iraq to be just as dangerous, if not more dangerous than it was before the fall of Saddam should sound off alarm bells in Washington. If Baghdad residents, and Iraqis in general, do not see their lives improve significantly from the US-led occupation, the chances increase that regular citizens will engage in, give support or remain acquiescent to the insurgency that has been bogging down the US-led occupation effort. Other significant results from the September poll were also a cause for concern. For example, 47 percent of respondents considered themselves worse off at the time of the poll than before the fall of Saddam. Certainly, the initial invasion of Iraq by coalition forces was bound to decrease the standard of living for many Iraqis since the country became a war zone. Nevertheless, the coalition should have spent countless resources on quickly removing the scourge of war from Iraq - streets in addition to upgrading much of Iraq's dilapidated and war-torn infrastructure. After seeing the results from September's poll, the coalition should have worked to rectify the security situation and improve the standard of living. Unfortunately, the results from a recent poll taken in Iraq are not too encouraging. The poll, conducted by Oxford Research International in the months of October and November, found that Iraqis believe that the coalition has failed to resolve the vital security and stability problems plaguing Iraq. Indeed, Iraqis are becoming increasingly disenchanted with the coalition. For example, the poll found that 78.8 percent of Iraqis have little or no confidence in US and British forces. Rather, 70 percent of Iraqis trust their religious leaders more than the coalition. The poll also found that less than one percent of Iraqis believe that the US-led reconstruction effort is what Iraqis need most in the next 12 months, highlighting the lack of confidence that Iraqis have in the US-led coalition. In addition, only one percent of Iraqis fear a withdrawal of US-led forces, with the majority arguing that it is up to Iraqis to 'work this out,' referring to post-war Iraq. This chain of results led Christopher Sahm, an Oxford University sociologist who helped lead the poll, to say, 'The very troops which liberated Iraqis from Saddam are the most mistrusted institution in Iraq today.' Not only have coalition forces gained the title of being one of the most mistrusted institutions in Iraq, but they have failed in the summer, fall and winter of 2003 to rectify this precarious condition. While it seems that the coalition has been powerless in defeating the insurgency, it must do so if it wants to prevent Iraqis from siding against the coalition. Once larger segments of Iraqi society begin to throw their support behind different insurgent groups, the country will become increasingly fragmented into different ethnic groups and political factions. Indeed, the poll found that 36 percent of respondents fear that Iraq might drift into civil war within the next year. If current conditions ensue, such a development could certainly occur. Erich Marquardt is an analyst with the Power and Interest News Report (PINR). |