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BACK TO : PROPAGANDA AND THE GWOT Year 5 - 2006
Experts: US must win 'war of ideas' by Tom Regan  #
Terrorism & Security posted June 16, 2006 at 11:30 a.m. Experts: US must win 'war of ideas' Survey of foreign policy experts shows majority want US to use 'non-military tools' to win war on terror. By Tom Regan | csmonitor.com In a survey of 117 of America's leading foreign-policy experts, both conservative and liberal, The Toronto Star reports that a large majority of those polled (84 percent) believe that the US is not winning the war on terror. And most of the experts surveyed believe that if the US is to win that larger war, it must first win the 'war of ideas' through the use of 'non-military tools' like diplomacy and multilateral organizations. In its first "Terrorism Index," released [Wednesday], the influential journal Foreign Policy found surprising consensus among the bipartisan experts. Some 86 per cent of them said the world has grown more, not less, dangerous, despite President George W. Bush's claims that the US is winning the war on terror. The main reasons for the decline in security, they said, were the war in Iraq, the detention of terror suspects in Guantanamo Bay, US policy towards Iran and US energy policy. The survey, conducted by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for American Progress, targeted people who have "run America's security apparatus over the past 50 years." Organizers describe the survey as the first of an annual series to establish a "terrorism index." Those surveyed include individuals who have worked as secretary of state, national security adviser, retired top commanders from the US military, seasoned members of the intelligence community, and distinguished academics and journalists. More than half of those interviewed have worked for the executive branch, one-third have served in the US military and 17 percent have served in the intelligence community. The experts warn that the war on terror is really just beginning, just as Americans appear to be "growing tired" of it. They say that America must win the war of ideas, and in order to do that, need to place a greater emphasis on nonmilitary tools. They also called on the government to think more creatively about the real threats to America - half of those surveyed say that "loose nukes and other weapons of mass destruction" pose the great long-term threat, while only 25 percent said Al Qaeda and terorism, and four percent said Iran. United Press International reported that the organizers weighted the sample "to compensate for the slightly larger number of liberals in the sample," but that conservatives who took part in the survey shared many of the same concerns as their more liberal counterparts. Foreign Affairs reports that those surveyed also believe that another 9/11 style attack is "not a question of if, but when." And a majority also see Saudi Arabia as the "premier incubator for terrorists." Overall, they agree that the US government is falling short in its homeland security efforts. More than 8 in 10 expect an attack on the scale of 9/11 within a decade. These dark conclusions appear to stem from the experts' belief that the US national security apparatus is in serious disrepair. "Foreign-policy experts have never been in so much agreement about an administration's performance abroad," says Leslie Gelb, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and an index participant. "The reason is that it's clear to nearly all that Bush and his team have had a totally unrealistic view of what they can accomplish with military force and threats of force." Reuters reports that a two-thirds majority of the experts also believes that the next attack on US soil will come in the form of suicide bombs and not chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. "Americans have never feared a suicide bombing the way the people of Amman and Jerusalem have," the survey says. "But the odds that America can elude the world's most popular form of terrorism may be fading fast." Reuters also reports that the foreign-policy experts, asked to grade US departments that deal with terrorism and foreign policy, only gave a grade higher than five to the National Security Agency. On a scale of 1 to 10, the Department of Homeland Security received a grade of 2.9, the Directorate of National Intelligence got 3.9 and the State Department was marked at 4.4. The one area where the experts felt that the government had done a good job in reducing the possibility of attacks on the US was the war in Afghanistan. And the survey also noted that the single most important thing that America can do to win the war on terror, is reduce its dependence on foreign oil. Eighty-two percent of the experts said that policymakers should make ending America's dependence on foreign oil a higher priority. And nearly two thirds said that current US energy policies are actually making matters worse, not better. "We borrow a billion dollars every working day to import oil, an increasing share of it coming from the Middle East," says index participant and former CIA director James Woolsey. "[F]or example in Saudi Arabia, billions are transferred to the Wahhabis and like-minded groups who then indoctrinate young people to hate Shiites, Sufis, Jews, Christians, and democracy, and to oppress women horribly." If US policymakers don't take this vulnerability seriously, terrorists do. Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda's No. 2, has labeled the global energy infrastructure a key strategic target for terrorists. In February, Saudi Arabia's government foiled an al Qaeda plot to attack the Abqaiq oil facility, the country's largest. Some 30,000 security forces are now guarding the country's oil fields. Global oil markets are so tight that even the threat of a supply disruption can cause a spike in price. These tight markets are partially responsible for the higher prices Americans will pay at the pump this summer. But the index suggests that there may be a greater price for our energy policy: losing the war on terror. Experts consulted David Albright Jo Husband Jon Alterman G. John Ikenberry John Arquilla Larry Johnson Ron Asmus Robert Kagan Scott Atran Kenneth Katzman Andrew Bacevich Juliette Kayyem Rand Beers Geoffrey Kemp Daniel Benjamin Daryl Kimball Peter Bergen Larry Korb Mia Bloom Charles Kupchan Philip Bobbitt Ellen Laipson Joseph Bouchard Anthony Lake Jarret Brachman Randall Larsen Matthew Bunn Thomas Lippman Dan Byman Jane Holl Lute Kurt Campbell Robert Malley Ted Carpenter Thomas Marks Ashton Carter John McCarthy Joseph Cirincione Mary McCarthy Richard Clarke Michael McFaul Steve Coll Merrill McPeak Roger Cressey Doris Meissner Sheba Crocker Joshua Muravchik PJ Crowley William Nash Arnaud deBorchgrave William Odom Mary DeRosa Michael O'Hanlon Matthew Devost Martha Brill Olcott Larry Diamond Charles Pena Dana Dillon Paul Pillar James Dobbins Walter Pincus Tom Donnelly William Potter Lawrence Eagleburger Christopher Preble RP Eddy Charles Pritchard Michael Eisenstadt Kenneth Roth Clark Ervin Barnett Rubin John Esposito Marc Sageman Gareth Evans Robert Scales Douglas Farah Teresita Schaffer Michele Flournoy Michael Scheuer Stephen Flynn Steven Simon James Forest Anne-Marie Slaughter William Frenzel Gayle Smith Francis Fukayama Amy Smithson Kathy Gannon James Steinberg Gregory Gause Jessica Stern Leslie Gelb Raymond Tanter Fawaz Gerges Shibley Telhami William Gertz Loren Thompson Larry Goodson Jack Vessey Mort Halperin Edward Walker Peggy Hamburg Stephen Walt Gary Hart William Weschler David Heyman William West Philip Heymann Lawrence Wilkerson Joseph Hoar James Woolsey Bruce Hoffman Daniel Zelikow Laura Holgate Anthony Zinni John Hulsman James Zogby |