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BACK TO : British/American Foreign Policy and the War on Terrorism
United front vital in deadly war by Paul Wilkinson Sun 25 Jul 2004 show images 
The Scotsman on Sunday, 25 July 2004 United front vital in deadly war PAUL WILKINSON THE publication of the 9/11 report and the announcement of swingeing defence cuts in the UK provide a timely opportunity to review the progress of the war against terrorism. As one might expect from a bipartisan US commission, they have not attempted to blame any individuals for the failures that led to 9/11. Yet it is important to recognise that some senior US counter-terrorism and intelligence officials such as Richard A Clarke and George Tenet, the CIA director, repeatedly warned their political masters of the severity of the threat. In 1998, Tenet warned the Clinton administration "We are at war", and in view of the August 1998 US embassy bombings in Africa he was absolutely correct. In August 2001, the CIA warned President Bush that al-Qaeda was determined to strike the US, and the government was told that a major attack was being prepared. Yet Bush did not discuss the threat with Tenet or with his senior advisers. Therefore, implicitly the commission is admitting that the ultimate responsibility for the failures of imagination, policy, capabilities and management lies not with the intelligence agencies but with their political masters. Many of the most important lessons drawn in the 9/11 report apply with equal force to the UK and America's other European allies. None of our governments and intelligence agencies understood the gravity of the threat posed by al-Qaeda, despite the fact that much of the preliminary planning for the 9/11 attacks was carried out in Western Europe, and that al-Qaeda had declared a "holy war" not only on America but also on America's allies. We need to face the fact that we are in a global war against the most lethal international network in the history of non-state terrorism. We face a new form of protracted asymmetric warfare in which al-Qaeda is seeking to compensate for its military weakness by launching no-warning, mass-killing attacks on civilians. On 9/11 it needed only 19 suicide hijackers and an estimated investment of $500,000 to cause almost 3,000 deaths and cost the US and global economies trillions of dollars. Thomas Kean, head of the 9/11 commission, was right to warn that America faces the threat of a terrorist attack even more deadly than 9/11. The commission inevitably focuses on the evidence that al-Qaeda remains committed to using civil aviation as a mode of attack and a target: they have been staging dummy runs and spotting weaknesses in aviation security. But the range of potential targets, tactics and weaponry is far wider. It includes protected targets such as government buildings, political leaders and embassies; economic infra-structure, including key financial centres, transportation and energy supplies; and attacks on tourists and public gatherings. Moreover, as al-Qaeda is explicitly committed to killing as many Americans and their allies, including civilians, as possible, and as they have shown great interest in acquiring chemical, biological and radiological weapons, we need to be prepared for these kinds of attack. Our collective failures serve to remind us of how far we have to go Even if such weapons were to be of a crude nature, they could kill many thousands of civilians. How is the Coalition Against Terrorism faring? There have been some clear successes. The coalition is the largest alliance in history. The Taliban regime, which had given safe haven to al-Qaeda, was swiftly toppled in 2001 and replaced by an interim government established with the assistance of the UN and committed to creating a free and democratic Afghanistan. Large numbers of al-Qaeda militants have been captured or killed in battle. Millions of dollars of funds have been blocked in the international banking system. And, so far, al-Qaeda has not succeeded in attacking the US homeland again. Nor has it so far succeeded in taking over the government of a single Muslim state. However, our collective failures in the global campaign against al-Qaeda are also very obvious and serve to remind us of how far we have to go. Almost three years after 9/11 we have failed to capture Osama bin Laden, his deputy Ayman Zawahiri or his other close aides. The al-Qaeda network remains capable of carrying out mass-casualty attacks, as we have seen tragically in Bali, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Morocco and Spain. By using terrorist groups that they have penetrated or hijacked, they have been able to maintain their global reach. More serious still, they have exploited the US-UK occupation of Iraq as a major propaganda tool to mobilise support in the Muslim world and to recruit new militants. The continuing lawlessness in Iraq has presented al-Qaeda's cells with a host of coalition targets to attack. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda is greatly intensifying its efforts to undermine and ultimately topple the governments of front-line Muslim states such as Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. For all these reasons, the 9/11 commission's foreign and security policy recommendations deserve urgent and wholehearted implementation not only by the US government but by the wider Coalition Against Terrorism. We must seek multilateral, not unilateral, solutions to develop a common approach to combating Islamic terrorism. We need to greatly intensify our efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Far greater efforts are needed to stop Afghanistan slipping back into the control of warlords allied to the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and to strengthen the Pakistan government's ability to stave off the terrorist threat. More effort is needed to encourage reform in Saudi Arabia and to assist it to defeat terrorism. Above all, we need to work together to win the vital battle of ideas against al-Qaeda's cruel ideology. In order to achieve this, public diplomacy is not enough. We must try to live up to our stated principles of human rights, the rule of law and democratic government. What of the role of the military? It alone cannot defeat a worldwide terrorist network which hides cleverly among the civilian population in dozens of cities around the world. Intelligence and police co-operation are the keys to success in capturing the terrorist cells. But the military have a key role in those lawless areas such as Afghanistan and Iraq where the terrorists can operate with almost total impunity and considerable firepower. In these terror wars, British soldiers have proved their professionalism, courage and unique ability to win public co-operation and support. In the light of the global terrorist threat we now face, Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon's decision to reduce the strength of our already overstretched Army defies belief. Paul Wilkinson is Professor of International Relations and chairman of the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, University of St Andrews |